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Weather for Houston…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 136 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALEVILLE…OR NEAR CAIRNS AAF… AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEWTON…PINCKARD…MIDLAND CITY…OZARK AND ABBEVILLE
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Weather for Dale…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 136 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALEVILLE…OR NEAR CAIRNS AAF… AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEWTON…PINCKARD…MIDLAND CITY…OZARK AND ABBEVILLE
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Weather for Henry…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 230 PM CST * AT 136 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALEVILLE…OR NEAR CAIRNS AAF… AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEWTON…PINCKARD…MIDLAND CITY…OZARK AND ABBEVILLE
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BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
The National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for,
dale county in southeast alabama,
northwestern henry county in southeast alabama,
northwestern houston county in southeast alabama…
* until 230 PM CST
* at 136 PM CST, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near daleville, or near cairns aaf, and moving northeast at 70 mph.
* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to newton, pinckard, midland city, ozark and abbeville
precautionary/preparedness actions…
this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.
&&
lat, lon 3178 8514 3173 8512 3172 8513 3169 8512
3165 8508 3120 8552 3120 8579 3127 8579
3162 8557 3162 8543 3171 8541 3171 8522
3174 8521
time, mot, loc 1938Z 218deg 59kt 3130 8566
Weather for Barbour…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTH CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… EASTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 100 PM CST * AT 1226 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PICKETT…OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… HURTSBORO…COMER…SPRING HILL…UCHEE…THREE NOTCH…RUTHERFORD AND HATCHECHUBBE. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER… CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
121 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
The National Weather Service has issued tornado watch 21 in
effect until 8 PM EST /7 PM cst/ this evening for the following areas
in alabama this watch includes 5 counties
in southeast alabama
coffee dale geneva henry houston
in georgia this watch includes 6 counties
in southwest georgia
calhoun clay early quitman randolph terrell
this includes the cities of, abbeville, arlington, ashford, blakely, cottonwood, cowarts, cuthbert, daleville, dawson,
dothan, douglasville, edison, enterprise, fort gaines,
fort rucker, geneva, georgetown, hartford, headland,
kinsey, leary, malvern, morgan, ozark, rehobeth, samson,
shellman, slocomb, taylor and webb.
Weather for Pike…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR… WESTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA… NORTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 1245 PM CST * AT 1210 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT…OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEADVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… SHOPTON…FRANKLIN FIELD…CHINA GROVE…HIGH RIDGE…SIMSVILLE… MITCHELL AND SEDGEFIELD. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER… CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
Active day is expected across the region today. Surface data from
early this morning show a frontal system moving eastward across the
Mid South with an organized squall line running out ahead of the
frontal zone. The airmass out ahead of this boundary is quite moist
and rather atypical for late January with dewpoints running in the
mid and upper 60s. But what is most impressive about this system is
the kinematic field. 500 mb analysis from 00 UTC shows a 110kt jet
moving through eastern Oklahoma. The lower level flow is equally
impressive with a 70kt measurement at 850mb from Little Rock at 00
UTC. Model guidance is in good agreement that this strong wind field
will translate eastward today as the strong trough shifts toward the
Atlantic Seaboard. Model guidance shows the low level 850 mb jet
ranging anywhere from 65kt to 75 kt just ahead of squall line this
afternoon across Southern Alabama and into Southwestern Georgia.
This strong wind field will easily support the potential for severe
weather. The only remaining question is how much instability this
system will have to work with as it moves eastward. Model guidance
shows a decent amount of instability (around 500 J/KG of SBCAPE) in
the afternoon, but this is maximized more across Southeast Alabama
and in the Florida Panhandle and diminishes considerably further
east into the Florida Big Bend and South Central Georgia. Thus it is
expected that the squall line will maintain itself as it moves into
the area later this afternoon but weaken with time while moving
eastward. Should the line remain well organized, the potential
exists for some significant wind damage across Southeast Alabama
where the combination of the strong wind field and instability is
likely to overlap. Even if the squall line weakens considerably,
with such a strong wind field in place, it will take very little to
bring severe-level winds to the surface. In fact, the environmental
flow out ahead of the line could produce winds gusting at times to
near 45kt this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
The strong Cold Front will push through the region tonight, with any
lingering showers and storms tapering off and ending from W to E
across the CWA. Much cooler and drier air will arrive in its wake on
breezy NW winds, with Low Temps falling into the Mid to Upper 30s
well to the NW with Lower to Mid 40s Elsewhere. High Pressure with
much cooler and drier air will continue for Thursday and Friday,
with a slight moderating trend by Friday afternoon. Also, a light
freeze may be possible for parts of the region on Thursday night,
but it may be very borderline in nature, and confined to the
interior of the FL Big Bend. With all of the Hazards currently in
effect today and the area still uncertain, will hold off on a Freeze
Watch for this package.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
The global models are in good agreement with their handling of the
large scale 500 mb height field, as they show a progressive pattern
through the period. For most of this time our weather will be
dominated by high pressure and continental airmasses, interrupted
briefly by cold fronts Saturday night/early Sunday, and next
Tuesday, though (Tuesday`s front may be have a little more moisture
to support at least a slight PoP). Daytime highs will be near
climatology (generally in the 60s). Because of the predominance of
dry air, lows will be a bit cooler than average (generally in the
30s).
&&
.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Thursday] Areas of IFR ceilings, occasionally dropping
to LIFR levels, will continue to affect the ECP/DHN terminals
through early this morning. Ceilings will continue to spread
eastward and impact ABY/TLH terminals before sunrise at MVFR levels.
As the day progresses, ceilings will likely lock in at MVFR levels
all sites. Strong southerly winds will also be a concern today with
sustained winds in the 25 to 30 kt range with gusts to 45kt at times
even away from convection. Showers and thunderstorms will move in
later this afternoon, approaching DHN around 20z and VLD by 00z.
Clearing is expected late with gusty northwest winds.
&&
.MARINE…
Winds and seas will increase quickly out of the south and southwest
today out ahead of a strong Cold Front. Sustained winds are expected
to reach 25 to 30 knots, but frequent gusts of 40 to 45 knots will
require a Gale Warning for much of today and into this evening.
Behind the Cold Front, sustained offshore winds will still support a
strong Small Craft Advisory, but the frequent gusts should subside
below Gale Force. By the end of the week and upcoming weekend, winds
and seas will return to light or light to moderate levels, below any
headline criteria, as high pressure builds in from the Northwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…No fire weather concerns are expected today, however
relative humidity values will drop to critical levels on Thursday
with red flag conditions possible across North Florida and perhaps
into Southeast Alabama. Given the uncertainty with ERC values in
Florida, will delay issuing a fire weather watch until later this
afternoon. Similarly dry conditions will continue into Friday before
a slight moistening trend begins on Saturday. The threat for red
flag conditions looks to end by Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
We expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Today, with storm
total rainfall ranging from just under 1.5 inches over SE AL to 0.5
inches or less over the SE FL Big Bend. This amount of rainfall
(with a very progressive Cold Front) is not expected to cause any
significant rises along area rivers.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
the wind advisory has been expanded in area and time…and is now in effect for all of southeast alabama…southwest and south central georgia…as well as the florida panhandle and big bend from 9 am est /8 am cst/ this morning to 10 pm est /9 pm cst/ this evening…
very strong southerly winds will develop this morning out ahead of a strong cold front. with extremely strong winds just above the surface…wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible…even outside of showers and thunderstorms. the strongest gusts (45 to 50 mph) are expected across western portions of the region…with gusts of 40 to 45 mph anticipated further to the east,
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-016-017-026-108-112-114-GAZ120>131-142>146- 155>158-310300-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WI.Y.0002.130130T1400Z-130131T0300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…SWEETWATER…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE
200 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013 /100 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013/
The wind advisory is now in effect from 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/
this morning to 10 PM EST /9 PM cst/ this evening…
* timing, from mid morning into this evening.
* winds, frequent gusts of 45 to 50 mph.
* impacts, winds this strong can knock down small trees, snap large branches, move garbage cans and patio furniture. they can also make driving high profile vehicles extremely difficult.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a wind advisory means that winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or higher are expected. winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
caution.
&&
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013
wind advisory in effect for wednesday for portions of southeast alabama…southwest georgia…and the florida panhandle and big bend…
unusually strong south winds will develop wednesday morning ahead of a strong cold front. wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are
possible…even outside of showers and thunderstorms.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-016-017-026-108-112-114-GAZ120>131-142>146- 155>158-302300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0002.130130T1400Z-130130T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…SWEETWATER…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE
231 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 /131 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/
Wind advisory in effect from 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ to 6 PM EST /5 PM cst/ wednesday…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ to 6 pm EST /5 PM cst/ wednesday.
* timing, from mid morning through late afternoon.
* winds, gusts of 40 to 45 mph.
* impacts, winds this strong can knock down small tree
branches, garbage cans, and small patio furniture. they can also make driving high profile vehicles difficult.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph or higher are
expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra caution.
&&
Sent from my HTC Rezound.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2013
…The slight risk for severe weather continues for tomorrow…
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Deep layer ridging continues to dominate the Tri-State region this
morning. With the stretching of the ridge with height, winds veer
from southeast at the surface, to southwest above 700mb. A thin
saturated layer just below the inversion has yielded a scattered
to broken cloud deck around 100kft. Expect these clouds to
continue their northeast movement through the day and only
gradually scatter. Most of the low cloud cover has and will remain
on the outskirts of the forecast area. Isentropic ascent along
the 295K surface has generated a few light showers this morning,
primarily offshore and west of Bay county. These showers will
slowly spread north along our western fringes today, bringing an
isolated threat for a sprinkle or two across the Panhandle and
southeast Alabama. Even though mid level clouds will only slowly
scatter today, deep layer ridging will still promote above average
warmth this afternoon. Upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be common
across inland locations, with lower 70s along the coast.
Tonight, elevated southerly flow will preclude any fog
development over land, however, low clouds are expected to overspread
the region and keep temperatures moderated in the low 60s for most
spots. Isentropic rain showers are expected to continue, and
perhaps become more numerous, primarily west of the Apalachicola
and Chattahoochee rivers. Sea fog, will be a possibility
overnight as southerly flow transports a moist/warm airmass over
the cooler shelf waters of the Bay. Some advection inland can be
expected, however, expect the inland penetration to be minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…
The short term period will continue to be focused on the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with the next storm
system that will sweep through the local region on Wednesday. A
squall line will develop ahead of a strong cold front and move into
the western zones by late Wednesday morning spreading across the
remainder of the CWA in the afternoon and early evening. The
forecast area will reside in the right-entrance region of a strong
upper level jet streak exceeding 100 kt. The low level jet is
forecast to be in the 50-60 kt range and the 0-6 km shear values are
still forecast to be near 50 knots in the warm sector. The primary
severe threat continues to be straight line damaging wind gusts but
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially for our Florida
Panhandle counties and SE Alabama.
By late Wednesday, the cold front should already be east of our FA
with surface high pressure and a much drier air filtering in
Thursday. Temperatures will be well above normal on Wednesday with
near or slightly below seasonal levels for Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
An uneventful long term period is expected with surface high
pressure remaining the dominant feature locally. Guidance is in
good agreement on a dry airmass with near seasonal temperatures
through the period, and the official forecast made no significant
deviations from the guidance consensus.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Tuesday]…
Most sites have returned to VFR as of 15z this morning. Expect
KABY to return to VFR within the hour. Thereafter, scattered to
broken mid level clouds will persist through the day. Overnight,
MVFR, and eventually IFR ceilings will overspread the region.
Light showers will be possible at both KECP and KDHN through the
night. Tomorrow, a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will
pass from west to east across all terminals through the afternoon.
The threat for damaging winds at the surface exists for primarily
KDHN and KABY, with mostly rain expected for all other sites. Low
level winds will be very strong, with up to 50 knots expected
below 2kft for most sites at some point during the day.
&&
.MARINE…
Winds and seas will gradually increase to cautionary and then
advisory levels later today into Wednesday as they veer to the
south and southwest ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will then
remain elevated for a short time after the frontal passage
Wednesday night before diminishing below headline criteria by
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
Red Flag conditions are not forecast through Wednesday as minimum
relative humidities are expected to be well above critical levels
throughout the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will bring
wetting rains…gusty winds and high dispersion indices to the
forecast area ahead of a Wednesday cold frontal passage. Drier air
will arrive behind the front for Thursday through Saturday. Our FL
zones will need to be monitored for possible red flag conditions on
those days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
The upcoming system on Wednesday is expected to be progressive and
bring a general half inch to inch of rain across the area. The
highest amounts are expected across portions of southeast Alabama
and adjacent southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. The
lowest amounts are expected across the southeast Big Bend.
Flooding problems are not currently expected.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
Updated 915am.
A 1033mb High is parked over the Carolina Piedmont this morning,
inducing light easterly flow across the forecast area. Overrunning
southerly and southwesterly flow above this surface layer is
helping to generate some low to mid-level cloudindess. While the
low-level flow is expected to veer more to the southeast this
afternoon and weakend the overrunning, there should still be
enough clouds to possibly dampen solar insolation a bit over the
Big Bend. Therefore, will trim back high temps a degree or two for
this region. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned this
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
The axis of a very deep trough will swing across the Four Corners
region Monday night into the southern plains Tuesday. During that
time the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS becomes further
amplified with a surface ridge centered off the southeast U.S.
coast. Low level onshore flow along with building heights will bring
very warm conditions to the Tri-state region with highs around 80
degrees most inland areas.
The upper trough advances into the nation`s mid-section Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the tail end of the associated cold front
pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into our CWA. Short
term models continue to indicate a possible threat for severe
weather with this system on Wednesday with a squall line developing
ahead of the front. Models are in better agreement with the timing
of this system but still differ somewhat on it`s strength for our
CWA. One difference is the strength of the low level jet with the
GFS showing a range of 45-55 kts with the NAM and EURO solution at
55-60+ kts. Also, as of 06z Monday, SPC`s day 4 (Wednesday) outlook
keeps our FA out of the severe risk. Will continue to mention
possible severe threat in the hazardous weather outlook which
appears at this time to be mainly straight line winds but keep
severe wording out of zones for now. PoPs will be tapered mid range
chance west to slight east Tuesday night and then likely for most of
the Tri-state region on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
Once the front clears the area late on Wednesday, dry and seasonably
cool conditions will prevail in its wake with no significant weather
expected through the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Scattered IFR cigs should lift by late morning with VFR conditions
at all terminals. The low clouds are likely to return overnight
with IFR conditions possible at all terminals. Fog is also not out
of the question overnight. However, confidence is lower
considering the potential for low and mid clouds.
&&
.MARINE…
Updated 915am.
Patchy fog near the coastline should burn off by midday.
Otherwise, light east to southeast flow will continue over the
coastal waters through the afternoon. No significant changes
planned with the morning update.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
No red flag conditions are forecast through Wednesday as minimum
relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels
throughout the forecast area. Drier air will arrive behind a cold
front for Thursday through Saturday. Out FL zones will need to be
monitored for possible red flag conditions on those days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
The upcoming system on Wednesday is expected to be progressive and
bring a general half inch to inch of rain across the area. Flooding
problems are not currently expected.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2013
.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]…
Quiescent conditions near the center of a low-level anticyclone are
expected to persist tonight. As a weak cold front begins to approach
the northern part of the forecast area close to 12z, winds may
increase slightly in that area, but they should remain calm with a
fairly strong inversion over the southern half of our area. The
inversion could come into play over parts of the area given the
number of fires that are currently evident on satellite and radar.
Poor mixing with increasing near-surface RH could be sufficient to
lead to some localized reductions in visibility with a combination
of smoke and fog. This will be monitored closely during the evening
hours for possible inclusion of fog in the forecast, or localized
advisories depending on how things evolve.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]…
The airmass will continue to modify over the next few days as the
upper flow flattens and surface high pressure remains in place
over the region. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s for the
next two afternoons, with lows rising into the 40s Thursday night
and the 50s Friday night.
A weak front will approach the region late on Friday. However,
moisture return will be extremely limited and the upper energy
will remain well to the north, which will keep PoPs extremely
limited and rainfall amounts quite low.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]…
Guidance has continued to back off on the potential surge of
colder air for this weekend. Models now barely push the cold
front through the region, as the primary upper energy pushes
quickly off to the east. With continuing warming trend in the
guidance, have followed suit in the grids and keep temperatures at
or above normal through the forecast period. The next chance of
significant rain is not anticipated until Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION [through 18z Thursday]…
Despite the potential for some cloud cover during the TAF period at
some of the terminals, the expectation is that any CIGS would be
VFR. The latest visible satellite and TLH radar shows numerous smoke
plumes from fires around the area, so there may be the potential for
a combination of smoke/haze and fog to reduce visibilities slightly
tonight at some of the terminals. This would most likely be in the
MVFR range, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time.
&&
.MARINE…
High pressure will remain in place over the waters through early
Friday with light winds and minimal seas. A weak front will
approach Friday night and cross the waters on Saturday with a
modest increase in winds in its wake. Easterly flow will develop
by late in the weekend as high pressure builds north of the
region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite continued dry weather on Thursday, minimum RH should remain
above 35%, so red flag conditions are not expected – despite high
dispersions in Florida. Increasing moisture on Friday and Saturday
with a cold front will limit fire weather concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
No significant rainfall is expected through the end of the week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2013
…UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION…
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The large scale longwave pattern during the predawn hours is
highlighted by a ridge along the Pacific Coast and a trough
dominating much of the rest of the continent, particularly east of
the Rockies. The western ridge continue to create a split flow
pattern with the southern branch of robust jet at base of trough
coming northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast
transporting a fair amount of cirrus across our area. At the
surface, low off mid-Atlc coast with reinforcing cold front SWD down
WRN Atlc then SWWD across N FL coast. Front noted by temp/dew points
/subtle wind comparison. i.e. just along front around 50/42/near
calm winds while over SE AL, mid to upper 40s/low to mid 30s/NW wind
5 to 8 mph. Dew points across Cntrl AL/GA running around 10 degrees
drier than same time yesterday and this will translate SWD into this
morning. In wake of front, as Alberta Clipper low exits EWD across
ERN Canada, 1030mb Canadian high centered over IA/MO. Locally
this translates to a reinforcement of cold arctic air riding on dry
NLY flow moving into SE region. This reflected in area model
soundings. i.e. 12z Tues GFS TAE with 0.28 PWAT and NLY flow to H7.
During today, Alberta low will move into Canadian Maritimes with
amplified troughing remaining east of Rockies and into WRN Atlc this
morning. Trough/low begins to lift this afternoon with local flow
becoming more zonal by tonight. Moisture will continue to be absent
from area, in fact PWAT remains below one-half inch thru 12z Thurs.
Front will push south of coast soon after sunrise. In its wake,
surface high will expand SEWD from MS Valley to across TN Valley and
then into SE region ushering in a colder and much drier airmass.
Inland dew points will drop to the upper teens to low 20s. Expect
decreasing high clouds with gradual clearing from N-S. Still even
with clouds filtering ample sunshine, cold air advection mixing
means that max temps will only reach from mid 50s north to mid 60s
SE Big Bend.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
The local area will reside on the backside of the mid/upper
longwave trough. At the surface, high pressure will gradually
slide south across the Tri-State region, into the northern Gulf by
Thursday. The main forecast challenge through the short term will
be pegging overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs.
Tonight will be the coldest night of the week, with sub freezing
temperatures expected for a large portion of the area. Thus, a
freeze watch has been issued for areas likely to see temperatures
fall below freezing for more than 2 hours. Although the boundary
layer appears to remain fairly dry overnight, patchy frost will be
possible closer to dawn in locations across SE Alabama, north
Florida, and extreme southwest GA, where RH values are most
favorable.
Strong subsidence on the backside of the aforementioned trough
will is well agreed upon by most of the guidance, with a solid
inversion expected at or below 900 mb on Wednesday afternoon. This
will inhibit afternoon mixing, and thus keep temperatures
moderated. Expect temperatures around 60 degrees across our
Alabama and Georgia counties, with lower 60s expected across north
Florida.
Southwest flow will advect higher dewpoint air into the region
overnight Wednesday. This will limit how low temperatures can
fall, even with light winds and few clouds expected. Expect an
east/west gradient divided by the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee
rivers, with upper 30s east, and lower to mid 40s to the west.
By Thursday, above average afternoon temperatures will return and
more efficient mixing is expected. Warming 850 mb temperatures and
a more zonal upper flow regime will translate to nearly all
locations across the Tri-State area reaching the 70 degree mark.
No rain is expected through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
The extended forecast period will be marked by a more amplified flow
pattern as a shortwave currently south of the Aleutian Islands in
the north Pacific digs southeast out of the Canadian prairies on
Thursday and Friday. Surface cyclogenesis initially occurs ahead of
the digging wave over the Mid-South and then develops more rapidly
along the east coast later Friday and Saturday – pushing a cold
front through the Gulf coast region. Generally the global models are
within 12 hours of each other on the timing of the front (centered
around 00z Saturday). However, they disagree on the strength of the
low-level cold air advection and how far south the surface high
pressure center gets. The 21.12z GFS is an outlier in this regard,
keeping the high center mostly north of the Ohio River and never
cooling 850mb temperatures below 5-6C in our area. However, the
21.12z runs of the UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF all show the high getting
much closer to the Gulf coast with 850mb temperatures dipping below
0C. More confidence lies in the latter solution at this time, which
would mean a chilly weekend.
&&
.AVIATION…[through 12z Wednesday]
VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hours. Expect only high
level cloudiness this morning becoming mostly clear during the day.
Winds will be light from the north to northeast then calm after
sunset.
&&
.MARINE…
Cautionary level winds will subside through the day as a cold
front moves further from the region and high pressure begins to
take over. Relatively light winds and calm seas are expected until
Friday when they will begin to respond to an approaching front.
This front could bring Advisory conditions to the northeast Gulf
by this weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
In the wake of a dry cold front…cooler and much drier air with
PWAT`s AOB 0.35 inches will overspread the region today and linger
into Wed. This combined with temps rising into the mid 50s to low
60s will enhance vertical mixing thru the day. This will induce
long durations of low RH everywhere across N FL today while
similar conditions favor low RH across all but the WRN portions of
FL on Wed. However, neither dispersion nor wind criteria will be
realized. Critical ERC values are expected both days across Leon and
Wakulla counties thus a red flag warning and fire wx watch are in
effect here for today and Wed respectively. Several other counties,
especially Washington and Bay have ERC`s approaching critical levels
and need to be monitored in case a warning or watch is necessary.
The air mass will begin to moisten Thurs and Friday as a front
approaches. In its wake, the air mass will begin to dry out during
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
Significant rainfall is not expected through the weekend. Thus,
river levels will remain steady as well.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
308 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
Based on overnight obs, dropped min temps 1-2 degrees for this
morning.
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by expansive H5
trough anchored from elongated vortex over Hudson Bay with axis into
Ern Conus and a ridge along west coast from Yukon to CA. Flow across
the SE region remains largely zonal with limited cirrus moving ewd
across mainly Srn portions of CWFA. At surface, one ridge of high
pressure extends Atlc across much of Gulf Coast and a second from
Cntrl Canada into Cntrl Plains across OH Valley. In between low
across St Lawrence Valley Canada with cold front down Wrn Atlc then
Swd to a low over SC the wwd to another low over AR. Locally this
translates to weak high pressure, light winds and mild temps south
of front.
During today, the trough will amplify and nudge ewd. This will drive
cold front Swd and thru our area during the aftn and into the Nrn
most Gulf of Mex by sundown. In its wake, mid continent high
pressure will expand ESE towards Gulf region. Some light fog may
linger past sunrise. With little lift and no dynamics, this will be
a dry front. Offshore winds will modestly increase in wake of front.
Strong Canadian high pressure will build in behind front but cold
air advection will initially lag so expect aftn high from upper 60s
north to low to mid 70s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
Winds will remain elevated overnight in the wake of the
aforementioned dry cold front. However, cold air advection will be
rather minimal by the time the front clears the Tri-State area.
Thus, have trended on the warmer side of the guidance envelope,
with low to mid 40s along the coast and across much of north
Florida. The coldest spots will be across southeast Alabama
and southern Georgia, where what is left of the CAA will drop
temps as low as the middle 30s.
On Tuesday, expect a much cooler afternoon than in recent days,
with highs in the middle to upper 50s across much of S.E. Alabama
and S. Georgia, and lower 60s across the Florida Panhandle. This
is warmer than most of the raw models would suggest, however, an
analysis of 850 mb temps would suggest that the warmer statistical
guidance is most likely the better solution in this case.
Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the week. The calm
center of high pressure will move closer to the Tri-State region,
though likely not move directly overhead until later in the
afternoon on Wednesday. Nonetheless, calm winds and clear skies
will promote optimal radiational cooling locally. Expect
temperatures near the 30 degree mark area wide, with the typically
cooler spots dipping into the upper 20s. Patchy frost may be
possible come Wednesday morning.
Wednesday`s forecast scenario will be similar to Tuesday, only
slightly warmer, with low to mid 60s expected area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
After a transitional period on Wednesday and Thursday, the mid and
upper level flow pattern is expected to amplify once again with a
high-amplitude trough evolving over the eastern CONUS by Friday
and Saturday. The 20.12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS differ slightly
on the timing of the cold front associated with the developing
cyclone, but there should be a good chance of rain sometime from
late Thursday into Friday. The surface high, and shallow cold air
mass, that settles into the Southeast region in the wake of the
front next weekend is projected to originate from far NW Canada.
At the very least this looks like a recipe for another widespread
light freeze, with a small chance for the first hard freeze of the
season depending on the eventual strength of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Monday]…
VFR conditions will remain the norm through the period, with the
exception of perhaps patchy fog/haze for a few hours around sunrise
this morning (mainly near KVLD).
&&
.MARINE…
A dry cold front will pass over our Gulf of Mexico waters tonight
through tomorrow. With it, an increase in winds to cautionary
levels is expected. Thereafter, winds will fall to below headline
criteria until the end of the week when another front is expected
to bring cautionary, and possibly advisory level, winds and seas to
the northeast Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
A dry cold front will move south across the forecast area today. In
its wake…cooler and much drier air will overspread the region into
mid week. Later today inland humidities will drop to around 25
percent but critical ERC and dispersion levels are not expected.
However on Tuesday afternoon…min RH will plummet to around 20
percent and dispersions and ERC values will likely reach critical
levels across portions of north FL. Therefore a watch was issued for
these areas. Red flag conditions are likely again on Wednesday
before the airmass begins to moisten up.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
Meaningful rainfall is not expected in or around local basins,
rivers, or streams. Thus, there are no flooding concerns through
the week.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013
wind advisory in effect until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this
evening…
unusually strong gusty winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon as a low pressure system strengthens in
northeast georgia.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-180000-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130118T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 126 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013 /1226 PM CST THU JAN 17 2013/
Wind advisory now in effect until 7 PM EST /6 PM cst/ this
evening…
* timing, through about 7 PM est/6 PM CST.
* winds, sustained west to northwest at 20 to 25 mph with
frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a wind advisory means that frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. gusts this strong can make driving more difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
&&
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013
a wind advisory is now in effect from 10 am est /9 am cst/ to 10 pm est /9 pm cst/ today for all of the tri-state area…
a strong cold front will push through the region today…with a tightening pressure gradient and strong cold and dry air advection in its wake. these conditions are expected to produce sustained west to northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph…with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph. some of these gusts may reach as high as 40 mph. winds should gradually begin to decrease after sunset…but the strong gusts could linger into the evening hours.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-108-112-114-180300-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WI.Y.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE
335 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 /235 AM CST THU JAN 17 2013/
a wind advisory is now in effect from 10 AM EST /9 AM cst/
this morning to 10 PM EST /9 PM cst/ this evening…
* timing, from 10 AM EST /9 AM cst/ this morning until 10 PM EST /9 PM cst/ this evening.
* winds, sustained west to northwest at 20 to 25 mph with
frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph. a few gusts may even reach 40 mph.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds or gusts this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra caution.
&&
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013
a wind advisory is in effect from 11 am est /10 am cst/ to 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ thursday for southeast alabama and the florida panhandle…
a strong upper system and cold front will move east of the area on thursday. in its wake…a tight pressure gradient will
generate strong west then northwest winds with frequent gusts exceeding 25 mph beginning in the late morning. winds will begin to relax by sundown.
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-108-112-114-171545-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0001.130117T1600Z-130118T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE
726 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 /626 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013/
Wind advisory in effect from 11 AM EST /10 AM cst/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM cst/ thursday…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM EST /10 AM cst/ to 7 pm EST /6 PM cst/ thursday.
* timing, thursday from late morning to early evening.
* winds, will be sustained near 20 mph with frequent gusts above 25 mph.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 mph are expected. winds or gusts this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
caution.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
733 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2013
…The end of our unusually warm weather is in site, with periods of
rain today into Thursday followed by much colder and drier air…
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Our Region will still be in the Warm Sector today, as the strong
Upper Level ridge to the east of the Bahamas will keep the eastward
progress of the developing shortwave over TX to a minimum for one
more day. However, the colder and drier air associated with the Sfc
Cold front is running a bit out ahead of the shortwave, and this is
causing areas of rain to develop over northern and western portions
of the region early this morning, and the PoPs will be significantly
higher further to the north and west throughout the day today. This
rainfall should keep Maximum Temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s to
the N and W, while we will see one more very warm day in the mid to
upper 70s (with a few lower 80s) off to the south and east. By
tonight, this shortwave will have cutoff from the flow over eastern
TX and western LA, before it starts to accelerate eastward. This
will bring increasing rain chances to the entire area tonight, with
significantly cooler air filtering in to the N and W. Lows temps
tonight will span a nearly 20 degree spread, ranging from around 40
over parts of SE AL, to near 60 across the eastern 1/3 of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
The best rain chances area-wide will be on Thursday morning as the
Upper Low and associated Sfc Cold front sweep through the region. In
fact, the 00 UTC Global models are in very good agreement with a
slightly faster solution than their 12 UTC counterparts, so we expect
decreasing rain chances during the afternoon (possibly even lower
than the current fcst if this trend continues), with no measurable
precip left by Thursday night. Also, with the much cooler air moving
in as well, temperatures are not expected to rise much from the
morning lows, with Highs only ranging from the mid to upper 40s over
much of SE AL to the lower to middle 60s over the SE FL Big Bend. It
will become quite breezy as well, with W-NW winds reaching 15 to 20
mph with higher gusts. This will set the stage for a mostly clear
and cold night for Thursday night into Friday morning, with low
temps near freezing. With Sfc winds remaining elevated along with
high soil moisture, believe a widespread light freeze is unlikely at
this time. Friday should be a mostly sunny and cool day, with Highs
ranging from the Mid 50s to the Lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through next Tuesday)…
The latest GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in forecasting large
500mb height falls over the CONUS (east of the Rockies) early next
week, coupled with plenty of very cold arctic air at the surface.
Saturday through Monday our temperatures will be near average, with
lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s. By Monday night or early
Tuesday, however, an arctic cold front may pass through our forecast
area, setting up a 24-hour period of strong cold air advection. As
is often the case this far out, there are model differences
regarding the details of how cold it could get here, but we have
plenty of time to watch.
&&
.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Thursday] Low cigs across the warm sector are creating
IFR to LIFR conditions early this morning across most of the TAF
sites with KVLD near the eastern edge. Areas of rain are expected to
affect KDHN and KECP through the period, eventually expanding
eastward. An improvement to MVFR cigs is expected during the day
for most areas with a quick dropoff back to IFR around sunset. The
exception is KVLD, which is expected to improve to VFR during the
day.
&&
.MARINE… Winds will be light to moderate out of the South out
ahead of the Cold front today, before shifting to the Southwest then
West from West to East across the Coastal waters late tonight and
Thursday morning. These winds are expected to quickly ramp up to
strong Small Craft Advisory levels on Thursday (with possible Gale
Force gusts), with winds and seas remaining elevated well into
Friday. Offshore winds should finally drop below headline levels on
Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
Abundant low level moisture is expected through Thursday with drier
air moving in behind a cold front on Friday. It now appears as
though relative humidity values will fall below 35 percent across
portions of northwest Florida on Friday afternoon. High dispersions
are also forecast for Friday afternoon, but ERC values are less than
20 over a large portion of the area so red flag conditions are
uncertain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
Despite the possibility of heavy rains upstream (well north and
northwest of our forecast area), the latest NHP guidance does not
show significant rises in our rivers this upcoming week. Over our
CWA, Storm Total Rainfall is expected to range from 0.25″ to 0.50″
over the SE half of the region, to between 1″ and 1.5″ over the NW
half.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through this afternoon]…
Latest surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary front still
just to the west of our CWA. Weak waves will translate along the
boundary today bringing a chance of rain mainly to our western
zones. Max temps will be held down a bit over the extreme
northwest portion of our CWA with the thicker cloud cover and rain
chances. Otherwise, look for high temps to max out around 80 degrees
expect lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday]…
The mid-week weather will largely depend on the exact evolution of
the upper-level low that is projected to close off at the base of
a more amplified trough, and then eject east along the Gulf coast
states by Thursday. At start of the period (Tonight & Wednesday),
the mid-upper level flow pattern will feature a highly amplified
longwave trough with an axis extending from Michigan to central
Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level anticyclone will remain anchored
just to the east of the Bahamas – setting up broad and deep SW
flow across much of the Southeast US. As the “near term” portion
of the discussion alludes to, this means that the surface front
will be slow-moving. After a generally dry night tonight, the
front will gradually push into the area on Wednesday, allowing
chances for showers to spread east. Any rain showers through 06z
Thursday should be scattered and relatively light – PoPs mostly
40% or less in that time frame.
The mid-upper level low is expected to close off over Texas on
Wednesday, and eject east Wednesday Night and Thursday – at which
point more substantial height falls should commence across our
area. In response to the ejecting wave, the models are in good
agreement that surface cyclogenesis will occur somewhere in our
vicinity, with the resulting low moving well E/NE by Thursday
evening. However, there is still disagreement about the location
of the cyclogenesis, as well as the trajectory of the ejecting
upper level low. These details will make an impact on the
forecast, so there remains some uncertainty. However, the strength
of the ejecting wave and associated QG convergence fields ahead of
it argue for fairly widespread precipitation. Therefore, in
collaboration with surrounding WFOs, PoPs were raised to “likely”
category (60-70%) over the northwest half of our area from 06z
Thursday to 00z Friday. With widespread rain and cloud cover on
Thursday, it should be a cool breezy day with highs in the 50s in
many locations.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Monday]…
LAST UPDATED: 235 am EST Monday Jan 14
A cooler airmass will move into the region in the wake of the
cold front. However, temperatures are only expected to fall back
to near seasonal norms. The cool surface high is expected to
become stretched east-west and centered just north of the region
moving into next weekend. This will result in a pretty healthy
easterly flow across the region, which will bring some modest
moisture return, and possibly some isolated showers for the
eastern half of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]…
IFR cigs this morning should transition to VFR/MVFR conditions by
mid to late morning. Low cigs will return tonight for all
terminals, with conditions possibly reaching airport mins at KTLH
and KVLD.
&&
.MARINE…
South winds of 10-15 knots will continue in advance of the
developing low pressure system through Wednesday Night. As a cold
front sweeps through the coastal waters on Thursday, winds should
veer to the northwest and increase to advisory levels (20+ knots).
Elevated winds and seas should continue into Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
Low level moisture will remain elevated across the region through
the end of the week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
After several days of very light and scattered rain showers with
limited rainfall, more widespread rainfall is expected on
Thursday. However, total average QPF through that time is expected
to range from around 0.20″ in the eastern Florida Big Bend to
1.00″ over southeast Alabama. This should not be sufficient to
produce significant rises on area rivers.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2013
areas of dense fog are expected west of the apalachicola and flint rivers this morning…
some areas of dense fog have been observed this morning in the florida panhandle to the west of the apalachicola river…as well as in southeast alabama and parts of southwest georgia to the west of the flint river. some high level cloud cover was causing the fog to briefly dissipate and re-form in some spots…which could cause sudden reductions in visibility. the fog should dissipate by mid morning.
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COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…
PARKER…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…
ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE
608 AM EST SAT JAN 12 2013 /508 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013/
Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ this
morning…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ this morning.
* visibility: around one quarter mile in spots.
* impacts: sudden reductions in visibility due to locally dense fog may create hazardous driving conditions.
precautionary/preparedness actions…
a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
&&
Be sure your speakers are on… Enjoy!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the
Piedmont and a quasi-stationary, diffuse frontal system from off the
TX coast through South FL. The latest NWP guidance indicates the
western portion of this front will intensify and lift northward as a
warm front on Wednesday. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a
split flow pattern over the CONUS, with a closed low in northwest
Mexico in the southern stream, and building 500 mb heights over the
Southeast. The 00 UTC KTAE sounding showed ample moisture between
850 and 600 mb.
Although the latest global models don`t show any Q-G forcing in
our region until tonight (and even then it`s rather weak), the
consensus of Convection Allowing Models (CAM) indicate a chance
of light rain today. The MOS from the large scale models have a
PoP of 10% or less. It`s not entirely clear what forcing will
trigger the shallow moist convection shown in the CAM, but it could
be the advancing (but weak) warm front to our south. Given the
fact that there was enough deep layer moisture to support some
light showers Monday evening (despite relatively weak forcing), we
took and average of the CAM PoP and MOS PoP, giving our forecast
area a PoP ranging from 20 to 30%. QPF values are likely to be
less than 0.10 inches.
The GFS/NAM/ECMWF MOS consensus appears quite warm for today,
especially in the FL Big Bend (with highs in the mid to upper 70s).
Monday was a good example of how MOS tends to have a warm bias
during these “cool wedge” scenarios, and we think with all the
moisture aloft (i.e. cloud cover) temperatures will still be a
little cooler than MOS. Our high temperatures forecast is a
compromise between a cloudy-and-cool scenario like Monday, and a day
where there is enough insolation for strong mixing and highs
approaching 80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
There is good agreement among the latest models in the continuation
of building 500 mb heights over the Southeast. This will effectively
block any major storm systems in the southern stream from directly
impacting our region- leaving us with just fringe effects. The
PoP will range from 10 to 30% as a weak warm front lifts north of
our region Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the building 500 mb heights,
the models are showing plenty of mid to upper layer moisture, so
there will be periods of considerable cloudiness. As is usually
the case during the winter, when it`s unusually warm here, there
is a chance of dense fog. The expectation of morning fog and
daytime clouds lead us to undercut the MOS consensus high
temperatures by a few degrees. Despite this, temperatures will be
well above average, even during the overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
Not much change to the previous thinking this model cycle. The big
story remains the strong ridge in place across Southern Florida that
will prevent a series of weather systems from moving into much of
our forecast area. A decaying frontal system will be across the
western portion of the area at the start of the period. This front
will dissipate by Saturday as the ridge strengthens. The next
frontal system on Sunday night into Monday may make a little more
progress eastward but is still anticipated to stall by Tuesday. Rain
chances will be on the low side but greatest in the northwestern
zones as these areas will be closest to the series of stalling
frontal boundaries.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the primary story through the
long term period. Max temperatures could possibly flirt with 80
degrees on Friday and Saturday with lows in the mid and upper 50s
being common throughout the period. This is effectively 10 to 15
degrees above climatology for Mid January. Even though this will be
quite warm, this won`t be record warmth as record highs for mid
January at Tallahassee range from 81 to 83 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION [through 06z Wednesday]…
MVFR ceilings will advance northward early this morning out of the
Gulf of Mexico and impact the terminals starting around 08z.
Expect a period of MVFR ceilings to continue through mid morning
at all sites before some improvement at TLH/VLD/ABY in the
afternoon hours. With a warm frontal zone being near the area on
Tuesday night, expect more widespread restrictions, possibly into
the IFR category.
&&
.MARINE…
Winds will be at exercise caution levels early this morning,
followed by a brief weakening of the winds this afternoon, before
they pick up again to exercise caution levels tonight. In fact,
winds and seas are likely to remain at moderate levels through
Thursday, especially across our western marine zones.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
The moistening trend will begin today with relative humidity values
remaining well above critical levels. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated through the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
Given the low PoP over the next few days, rivers are expected to
remain below action stage.
What do you think??
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
532 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a weak frontal wave
propagating eastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and a
1030 mb high over southern IN. Local radars showed patches of light
rain over our Gulf coastal waters, but any moderate rain was well
south and east of our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed split flow over the CONUS, with a closed southern stream
low over southern CA, a ridge over the southern Plains, and a trough
translating eastward over the mid Atlantic states.
Any sprinkles early this morning over north FL will end shortly
after sunrise as large scale subsidence (and mid tropospheric
drying) develop over our region. Skies will partially clear over
most of the forecast area, but high level clouds are likely to
remain over the Cross City area. With limited mixing and fairly low
sun angle, highs will only reach the lower 60s (except mid 60s Cross
City), which is near average for this time of the year.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
500 mb heights are forecast rise about 100 meters over much of our
forecast area between now and Wednesday. At the surface, the high
pressure system currently centered over southern IN will move east
off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday, providing our region with
east winds Tuesday and Wednesday. There is good agreement among the
global models in warm frontogenesis over the Gulf Coast states
Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it appears that most of the Q-G
forcing, instability, and deep layer moisture will be a bit to our
west and northwest. This is where the higher rain chances will be.
Our current PoP is only in the 20-30% range for our northwest zones.
With the rising heights comes warmer temperatures, as we expect high
temperatures in the mid 60s (FL Panhandle, GA, & AL) to mid 70s (FL
Big Bend) Tuesday, and in the lower 70s (GA & AL) to mid to upper
70s (FL) on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s Tuesday, and well
into the 50s Wednesday. Wednesday`s temperatures will generally be
10 to 20 degrees above average (low and high
temperatures).
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
The long term period begins with a large mid level ridge in place
just off the Florida East Coast and a strong upper low across the
Rio Grande Valley. This upper low will eject northeastward into the
western Great Lakes by Friday as the ridge strengthens its position
across Southern Florida. This results in a stalling frontal boundary
to our west early in the period with minimal rain chances. The next
substantive system approaches on Sunday and may indeed get into our
western zones before stalling as it approaches the strong ridge
across Southern Florida. Overall, rain chances throughout the long
term period will remain on the low side.
With such a strong ridge and prolonged period of southerly flow in
place, the long term period is expected to feature temperatures well
above climatology. Max temperatures could possibly flirt with 80
degrees late in the period with lows in the mid and upper 50s being
common. This is effectively 10 to 15 degrees above climatology for
Mid January. Even though this will be quite warm, this won`t be
record warmth as record highs for mid January at Tallahassee range
from 81 to 83 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Monday]…
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening.
Southerly flow will return low level moisture quickly tonight with
MVFR ceilings developing after midnight and spreading inland,
particularly at ECP/DHN. Ceilings could potentially be in the IFR
range toward the end of the TAF cycle at these sites as well.
&&
.MARINE…
The winds well offshore were nearing advisory levels as of
06 UTC, and the latest NWP guidance consensus suggests advisory
conditions are likely for our outer coastal waters until about mid
morning. We added the eastern portion of our outer coastal waters to
the advisory issued on Sunday, but cancelled the nearshore portion.
Winds and seas will gradually subside later today through
Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
Dry conditions will continue today, but relative humidity values
will stay above critical levels. Expect a moistening trend to begin
on Tuesday and continue through the week as low level southerly flow
becomes established.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
The recent rain “events” (which featured good area coverage but
relatively low amounts) have had no significant impacts on local
river stages. Given the low PoP over the next few days, rivers are
expected to remain below action stage.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The long wave pattern this morning features a Rex block out west, a
positively tilted trough from eastern Canada southwestward to the
Southern Rockies, and a ridge over the Caribbean. Water vapor
imagery shows moisture feeding northeastward between the trough and
ridge. Surface analysis shows a stalled front draped across the
northern FL Peninsula stretching southwest across the Gulf of Mexico
to low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Regional radars indicate a
shield of mainly light rain extending from the North Central Gulf
northeastward into the Carolinas.
Today`s forecast will be similar to yesterday`s with mainly cloudy
skies and areas of light rain. Rain chances are a bit higher than
yesterday as the right entrance region of the 170- to 190-kt 250-mb
jet extending from the Mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to
Southern New England moves closer to the region. This will increase
upper divergence and large scale lift over the southeastern states.
PoPs are in the categorical range across the western zones lowering
to likely farther the east. All of the clouds and rain will keep max
temps below normal, ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the
lower 60s in Dixie County.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]…
Cooler and drier air will move into tonight with slight to low rain
chances restricted to the FL Big Bend zones. A brief light freeze is
forecast for Coffee, Dale, Henry, Geneva, Quitman and Clay Counties.
Durations are expected to be insufficient to reach warning criteria,
except perhaps across northwest Coffee County. Feel this is too
marginal for a watch at this time and will let the day shift
evaluate the need for any warnings. Friday should be a dry day for
most of us with slight chance PoPs restricted to Dixie County. Max
temps will be just a degree or two shy of normal. Friday night and
Saturday will see near normal temps. This period will also see a
gradual increase in PoP from the south as isentropic ascent over the
stalled boundary to our south commences once again. By Saturday
afternoon, PoPs will range from 50 along the FL Big Bend coast to 20
over our northeast zones north of the VLD vicinity.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
An unsettled weather pattern will begin the period with abundant
moisture in place. An upper trough will approach Sunday and swing
through the region Sunday night scouring out the moisture to our
south and east. Deep layer ridging quickly builds in overhead along
with a very dry airmass Monday into Tuesday. Short term models show
a developing low pressure system over Texas Tuesday that moves into
the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday and then becomes vertically
stacked as it lifts northeastward into the Missouri Valley Thursday.
Showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold
front should begin to spread into our western zones late Wednesday
sweeping across the remainder of our CWA Wednesday night and
Thursday. Too far out to be confident with this scenario, especially
on the timing so will just introduce slight PoP for now.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal levels through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Thursday]…
Brief conditions of MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible through daybreak
especially during periods of light rain or drizzle. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail with cigs around 4-5kft. Rain should end around
midday today. Winds will be light from the northwest to northeast.
&&
.MARINE…
The gradient is expected to tighten across the marine area today
with exercise caution conditions overspreading the waters from west
to east. Winds will remain elevated through tonight before subsiding
below headline criteria on Friday and remaining 15 kt or less
through the weekend. Winds will then increase to cautionary levels
once again Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern persists over the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested below action stage and
other rivers across the northwestern HSA are receding. Rainfall over
the next couple of days is expected to be light enough to prevent
any significant rises on area rivers.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The long wave pattern this morning features ridges over the FL
Peninsula and Caribbean and the Pacific NW, and a positively tilted
trough over the central U.S. A 180- to 200-kt upper jet was noted at
250 mb stretching from the TX Panhandle northeastward to Southern
New England. Surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just
northwest of the forecast area stretching from SC southwest across
Central GA and Southern AL to near Pensacola. Radar shows a narrow
band of rain in the warm sector moving across our western zones with
mainly sprinkles and drizzle northwest of the front. Temperatures
are very mild across the area for this time of night and year. Most
reporting stations were in the mid 60s as of 07Z. The cold front
will work slowly southeastward across the forecast area this morning
and reach the Lower Suwannee River by early afternoon. Max temps
today have likely already been observed across most of the forecast
area. About the only area that will see temps rise higher this
afternoon will be the eastern FL Big Bend zones. Temps over the
northwest half of the forecast area will likely be in the 50s all
day. Forcing for ascent will be weak today. There is some subtle
isentropic upglide noted on the 300K surface and of course there
will be some lift force by the front itself. PoPs will be rather low
ranging from 20-40%, although skies will be overcast for much of the
day behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
The unsettled weather will continue through Thursday evening. As the
right entrance region of the upper jet approaches, we will see
somewhat more QG forcing and PoPs will rise accordingly. We are
looking at 40-60% for tonight. On Thursday, likely PoPs are forecast
for the southern half of the forecast area lowing to 30% for the
northern tier of counties north of and ABY-DHN line. Min temps
tonight will remain above normal with abundant cloud cover forecast
to continue. Thursday will be cloudy and chilly day. The clouds and
and rain will restrict max temps to the 50s in most area. Drier air
will move into the area overnight Thursday and this will allow skies
to clear and temps to drop into the 30s for all but the coastal
areas and Dixie County. Coffee and western Geneva Counties could dip
below freezing, but durations do not appear sufficient to warrant
any future watches/warnings at this time. Max temps Friday will rise
to within a degree or two of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
The extended period begins with a brief dry period Friday night
through most of Saturday with deep layer ridging over the region.
Then, another disturbance lifts northeastward from the Gulf ahead of
a deepening upper trough crossing the central plains late Saturday.
Rain returns to the forecast and continues into early to midday
Sunday when the axis of the upper trough swings into the southeast
CONUS shunting the moisture to our south and east. The mid/upper
level flow quickly transitions to zonal on Monday followed by
ridging Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure and
a very dry airmass will be in place Monday through the remainder of
the period. Temps will be near to slightly above seasonal levels.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Wednesday]…
IFR ceilings will prevail at all TAF sites through daybreak along
with MVFR visibilities. Patchy light rain can be expected from time
to time throughout the forecast period as a cold front lingers
across the region. A prolonged period of at least MVFR ceilings are
expected through this afternoon even outside of rain areas.
&&
.MARINE…
Light to moderate onshore winds will shift to offshore as the cold
front passes today. The western waters could see exercise caution
conditions by late in the day. These conditions will spread to the
eastern waters on Thursday with winds then remaining elevated
through Friday. Winds will drop below headline criteria for the
weekend, but will return to cautionary levels Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern persists over the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
No issues are expected through the period. Rainfall through the
weekend should be insufficient to produce any significant rises. In
fact many rivers across the northwestern HSA should be in recession.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
504 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Zonal flow will continue aloft as a mid/upper level shortwave
shears out over the Mississippi Valley today. As the flattening
trough moves into the Mississippi Valley it will slowly push a
cold front into the Southeast. With the slow approach of the
front, we will likely not see any rain across the area. If showers
happen to occur, they should remain confined to our SE Alabama and
western Panhandle counties later this afternoon. The main forecast
concern for today will be the development and evolution of low
clouds through the first part of the day. A mix of low and high
clouds will dominate the morning hours, followed by mainly upper
level clouds to finish the afternoon. Temperatures should be able
to climb to the 70 degree mark for most locations today.
Tonight, a weak impulse tracked back to the western Gulf Coast
will merge with the dampening low/mid level trough and result in a
brief period of amplification locally. This should develop a wave
of low pressure along the quasi-stationary front that will
traverse the Southeast through the night, before weakening over
the western Atlantic. The wave will bring the front into the Tri-
State region overnight resulting in showers across the
northwestern part of our forecast area. Lows will remain mild, in
the middle to upper 50s for most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…
With little to no synoptic forcing expected on Wednesday the
aforementioned front will essentially be a stale boundary draped
across the local area. As a result, there will only be a slight
chance of rain for most spots through Wednesday afternoon. Ample
cloud cover will keep temperatures moderated in the lower 60s
south of the front, and possibly some 50s in the afternoon north
of the front.
Wednesday night, another weak southern stream impulse will combine
with favorable isentropic ascent and likely result in a rather
large rain shield spreading from southwest to northeast through
the day on Thursday. There is some uncertainty just how far north
the rain shield will extend, thus rainfall amounts remain highly
uncertain at this time. Should the plentiful rainfall occur far
enough north to favorably impact our region, event totals around an
inch to possible 2 inches in extreme cases, can be expected. On
the backside of the front (most of the area) high temps will climb
only to the middle and upper 50s. So any rain that falls will be a
rather cool rain.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through next Tuesday]…
The extended period will begin with the last in the series of weak
low pressure waves exiting to our east, with another Ridge of High
Pressure building in for a fair and cool Friday. The first half of
Saturday looks to be fair and cool at this time as well, but yet
another wave of low pressure may try to return from the Gulf of
Mexico for later on Sat, lasting into Sunday and possibly Monday as
well, with the best chances for rain over the southern portion of
the CWA. Due to the uncertainty of the situation and significant
differences between the 00 UTC GFS (which would call for fair and
dry conditions with a slow moderating trend Sun-Tue), and the
earlier 12 UTC ECMWF (which would likely keep more unsettled
conditions across the area), will await the arrival of the 00 UTC
Euro before making the final call. The new 00 UTC ECMWF is in, and
little has changed. Therefore, will keep PoPs in the fcst through
Sunday Night.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Tuesday]…
Fairly tricky Taf fcst for most of the current package, as there are
a few pockets of MVFR level Cigs sliding in underneath the quickly
expanding Cirrus Deck. Expect at least a short period of these Cigs
at TLH, ECP, and DHN, while MVFR level Vis will remain possible at
ABY and VLD, which are out ahead of the lower clouds. During the
daylight hours Today, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies (at VFR
levels), before MVFR level Cigs return to the terminals after sunset
as the next Low Pressure system approaches from the west. Any rain
that falls should be light, but fcst PoPs are high enough to
include Prob30s at DHN, ECP, and ABY.
&&
.MARINE…
During the unsettled weather pattern outlined above, there will be
on-and-off periods of cautionary conditions over our Gulf Coast
waters. Advisory conditions should hold off, except for a brief
period on Friday as high pressure quickly builds in over the
waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern will take a foothold over the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
Minor river rises are possible Wednesday through Friday depending
on the exact location of the rain shield. At best, 1 to 2 inches
are expected, with isolated higher amounts (likely to occur nearer
to the coast) reaching 3 inches.
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